Estimating the historical and future probabilities of large terrorist events
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Estimating the historical and future probabilities of large terrorist events
Quantities with right-skewed distributions are ubiquitous in complex social systems, including political conflict, economics and social networks, and these systems sometimes produce extremely large events. For instance, the 9/11 terrorist events produced nearly 3000 fatalities, nearly six times more than the next largest event. But, was this enormous loss of life statistically unlikely given mo...
متن کاملDiscussion of : Estimating the Historical and Future Probabilities of Large Terrorist Events
I congratulate Clauset and Woodard (2013) on a very interesting article. The authors analyze a global terrorism dataset with the aim of quantifying the probability of historical and future catastrophic terrorism events. Using power law, stretched exponential, and log-normal tail probability models for the severity of events (# deaths), the authors make a convincing argument that a 9/11 sized ev...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: The Annals of Applied Statistics
سال: 2013
ISSN: 1932-6157
DOI: 10.1214/12-aoas614